TodayIndependent. Non-partisan. Every figure sourced.
Population Decides
Latest polls

Hot issue: Small boats

What should Britain do about the small boats?

Crossings are down on last year but still running at hundreds a week. The France 'one in, one out' returns deal ended on 30 Sept after returning about 1,087 people. An Immigration and Asylum Bill making refugee status temporary is going through Parliament.

18,565people crossed the Channel in small boats in 2026 up to 23 September, down 42% on the same point in 2025
Give your answerFree. No account needed. Then see how Britain split.

The options

  1. Defend the beaches: leave the ECHR and deport all arrivals

    Quit the European human rights convention, detain everyone who arrives by boat and remove them to their home or a safe third country.

    Backed by: Reform UKConservatives

    Pick this option in the game
  2. Closest to what the government is doing now

    Get tough at home but stay in the ECHR

    Refugee status reviewed every 30 months, up to 20 years to settle, tighter family-life appeals, more detention and more officers chasing gangs.

    Backed by: Labour

    Pick this option in the game
  3. Do it with Europe: join an EU returns and asylum deal

    Sign up to the EU's shared migration and asylum pact so people can be returned to Europe and claims shared out across countries.

    Backed by: Liberal Democrats

    Pick this option in the game
  4. Open safe legal routes and decide claims fast

    Let people apply for asylum from abroad so they never need a boat, clear the claims backlog quickly and keep human rights law as it is.

    Backed by: GreensSNPPlaid Cymru

    Pick this option in the game

What happens next

  1. If Britain leaves the ECHR

    Removals face fewer court challenges. But the convention is written into the Good Friday Agreement, so leaving could unsettle Northern Ireland's settlement and relations with Ireland.

    Supporters of leaving argue the first; many lawyers and the Irish government warn of the second
  2. If removals still cannot happen in large numbers

    Detention fills and people wait in limbo. The Rwanda plan cost about £700m and sent 4 volunteers, a reminder that a deterrent only bites if removals actually happen.

    Home Office figures, 2024
  3. If the tougher rules inside the ECHR carry on

    Reviewing refugee status every 30 months means far more casework. Backers say it removes the pull of quick settlement; critics say it slows people finding work and settling in.

    The government argues; refugee charities and some employers warn
  4. If a UK and EU returns deal is agreed

    Returns to Europe become routine, but the EU would likely ask the UK to take a share of asylum seekers in return, which could mean more legal arrivals overall.

    Supporters of a deal argue; sceptics warn
  5. If safe legal routes open

    Some people apply from abroad instead of crossing, which could cut deaths at sea. But demand is far larger than any likely cap, so smugglers may still find customers.

    Refugee groups argue; the Migration Observatory notes the evidence is limited
  6. If the claims backlog is cleared fast

    Hotel bills fall. MPs found asylum housing contracts were expected to cost about £15bn over ten years, far above the first estimate of about £4.5bn.

    The Home Affairs Committee, 2025

The arguments

The case for getting tougher

  • If arriving by boat usually leads to staying, the smugglers' business model keeps working. Supporters say only a real deterrent stops people paying the gangs.
  • Public consent for immigration depends on the state deciding who comes in. Many voters see the crossings as a test of whether the rules mean anything.
  • Asylum hotels and support cost billions that could fund other services, and the strain often falls on poorer towns where hotels are used.
  • Almost everyone crossing has already passed through safe countries such as France, so supporters say the system should not reward the most dangerous route.

The case against

  • Many people who cross are later found to be refugees fleeing war or persecution. Treating every arrival as illegal risks sending people back to danger.
  • Only Russia and Belarus in Europe sit outside the ECHR. Leaving could weaken rights protection for everyone and put the Northern Ireland peace deal at risk.
  • Research suggests people fleeing conflict are often little moved by policy changes in the country they head for, so harsh deterrents may not cut numbers much.
  • Without legal routes, smugglers have a monopoly. A fast, fair process and close work with France and the EU may achieve more than tougher laws alone.

The trade-offs

Questions to ask yourself

Sources

  1. itv.com /news/2026-09-24/channel-crossings-busiest-day-for-2026-with-781-arr…
  2. euronews.com /2026/09/30/uk-ends-one-in-one-out-migrant-returns-deal-with-france
  3. naccom.org.uk /immigration-and-asylum-bill-2026/
  4. expressandstar.com /uk-news/every-tory-candidate-must-back-leaving-echr-says-badenoch-5…

Facts as of October 2026. Party positions reflect each party's current stated policy and may change.

Britain is split. Now you decide.

Pick your side on small boats, guess how the country answered, then see where you really line up with the parties.

Give your answer

More hot issues