Will income tax go up in the Budget?
The government has repeatedly said it will not raise the main rates of income tax, employee National Insurance or VAT, which was a manifesto promise. But income tax thresholds are frozen until 2031, so many people pay more income tax each year even when the rates stay the same.
Income tax in England, Wales and Northern Ireland has three main rates: 20% basic, 40% higher and 45% additional. You pay nothing on the first £12,570, the personal allowance. The higher rate starts at £50,270. Scotland sets its own bands and rates on earnings.
These thresholds were frozen in 2021 and the November 2025 Budget extended the freeze by three more years, to April 2031. As pay rises with inflation, more income falls into tax and more people cross into the higher rate. This is called fiscal drag. It raises billions of pounds a year without any headline rate going up.
Raising a main rate would raise a lot of money quickly. HMRC's ready reckoner puts a 1p rise in the basic rate at roughly £7 billion a year. That is why the question comes up before every Budget, and why some economists argue a small rate rise is fairer than a long freeze. Others say any rise would break a clear promise and hit working households.
The Budget on Wednesday 28 October 2026 is the next chance for changes. Until it is delivered nobody outside government knows what is in it, so treat any reported plans as speculation until the speech.
Read next: Budget 2026: what to expect · What is fiscal drag? · What is income tax? · The higher rate threshold
Some on the left argue a fairer route is higher taxes on wealth and the highest earners, rather than freezing thresholds that hit lower earners hardest.
Many on the right argue the tax burden is already at a record high and the government should cut spending rather than take more through the freeze.
Britain is split. Now you decide.
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Play Population Decides freeCommon questions
Will income tax rates go up on 28 October 2026?
The government has said it will not raise the main rates of income tax. Nothing is confirmed until the Budget speech.
How long are income tax thresholds frozen?
Until April 2031, after the November 2025 Budget extended the freeze by three years.
How much would 1p on the basic rate raise?
Roughly £7 billion a year, according to HMRC's ready reckoner.
What is fiscal drag?
When tax thresholds stay the same while wages rise, so more income is taxed and more people move into higher bands.